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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.